Yesterday, I missed most of the game live. I was late coming back from a movie which caused me to miss most of the first quarter and then my wife was delayed coming home from a workshop in Ann Arbor by the dude shooting up I-96. As a result my folks and I spent the time from getting home until about midway through the third quarter helping my kids get ready for a Halloween party. Then actually taking the kids to the party.

I was salty about it all. I “hate” Wisconsin. I hope they never win at anything, least of all against us. I have the opportunity to watch both Badgerfreude and have my team be the team inflicting it. As we were getting ready to walk out the door, the Mrs. offered me the opportunity to stay home and I declined for fear of it being a trap. (It wasn’t, I think.) As I was driving to the party MSU continued to struggle on offense and I grew increasingly frustratedangryupsetannoyed. “How can any team’s offense be THIS BAD? There have been times this year I’ve thought an offense with 11 true freshmen might play better. How is the defense going to continue to be part of the team when they are clearly BCS caliber and the offense is not? And Holy God we’re going to lose to Bielema again and I hate that smug shitsipper.” And then…

“It’s just a game.” The first time it rattled through that list of surly, crappy thoughts I didn’t completely believe it. A dude got shot on I-96 yesterday. He’ll be ok thankfully, in fact, he may not agree with the “It’s just a game” sentiment:

Workers at the Mobile station told 7 Action News that the man hit by a bullet refused their help and just wanted to go to the World Series. He was eventually treated by an ambulance crew at the scene and taken to St. Joseph Mercy Hospital of Livingston where he is listed in stable condition.

Yesterday a man who’s much angrier about something than I am about a football game injured someone and inconvenienced thousands of people. As a result, I missed some of a football game live. I watched the whole thing later. We went to the party and the kids had a great time. I ended up “watching” the end of the game with Ty and bunch of other friends on twitter. Celebrating with them was a much richer experience than it would have been to watch the game alone. It’s just a game.

Anyway, enough about all that shit.

First off, oh hai there Bret BieLOLema. I know you lost Joel Suave and all but I bet you didn’t know our defense is rugged like Sam Elliott and shit did you? I cannot think of a more excellent way to break Wisconsin’s 21 game win streak than to steal one from Bielema at the end of the game. In case you were wondering, this makes for late game heroics in 2008, 2011(regular season) and 2012. MSU has also won the last three regular season match-ups which would normally constitute a winning streak if it weren’t for Roughing the Punter. Early prediction: MSU wins the 2017 game.

There had been a lot of talk this week about MSU dropping three conference games by six points. OSU and Michigan stand out particularly as games where a simple make instead of a miss on a FG try have MSU at 6-2 instead of 4-4 going into the Wisconsin game. I’m going to go ahead and chalk yesterday up as a “Shoulda Lost”. If Wisconsin doesn’t lose Suave, something tells me they’d have put up more than 10. After two “Shoulda Wons”, I’ll take a Shoulda Lost. If you were to go back and poke at the 2010 and 2011 teams I’m pretty sure you’d find a handful of Shoulda Losts. 2010 Northwestern and 2011 Minnesota I’m looking at you.

This offense plays well when they pass the ball with some urgency. So much so that I wrote a post encouraging some hurry-up play a couple of weeks ago. At this point in the season we are far enough along to know that our defense is filthy good. If it gets MSU an extra 10-14 points a game to let Maxwell gamble a bit more, let him do it! Even if he Rick-Sixes his way through the season I think you still come out ahead in that scenario.

The counterpoint to that argument is that with the Legends Division crown effectively out of reach and a bowl game pretty well assured now. Everything should be about preparing the offense for 2013. Next year MSU has a stupid favorable schedule skipping Wisky, PSU and OSU and getting Indiana, Purdue and Illinois. If you want to win the Big Ten MSU’s schedule is about as favorable as it can be.

It’s just a game. And MSU Shoulda Lost. But they didn’t and it was awesome. On to Nebraska.

Despite having the worst MSU offense since Internet Recordkeeping began back in 2003, MSU lost to Michigan on Saturday by two. The Michigan/Michigan State internets have lit up like a brushfire about “what this all means” going forward.

Naturally, the Order of the Universe has been restored over at MGoBlog. One great throw to Drew Dileo in the last minute of the game is equal to total vindication of all Denard Robinson’s 14 of 29 day for 163 yards and no touchdowns. It’s cool to be excited about beating your rival that you don’t care about that much, but apparently cooler than I thought.

Denard Robinson is 13 of 29 for 143 yards; he's run 20 times for 96 yards. His team is down a point and has managed to turn 120 seconds into eighteen without moving the ball anywhere near plausible field goal range. A few drives ago Jeremy Gallon was as wide open as you can be on third and goal and Denard blasted it hard and behind the guy—if it was to keep it away from a defender it was because the throw was late—or Michigan would lead by three.

Behind me, some Michigan State meathead has spent the better part of four quarters screaming "throw it, Denard, huh huh huh." Juggalo Nation, reprazent.

Could it be the same Juggalo who saw this last year?

In this particular case, the stats were on the Juggalo’s side. Interesting fact. Andrew Maxwell after Saturday has a higher QB passer rating than any of Denard’s four showings against MSU. I get the delicious gooeyness of Robinson making a throw when it counts against the team that has not respected him, but it does not unmake a career of mediocre play against MSU.

Even better.  After a two point home win in which Michigan did not score a touchdown.

MSU fans are still clinging to the recruiting-rankings-are-meaningless thing. They're in for a harsh reality check once Michigan's recruiting rankings are paired with something other than crippling attrition, lackadaisical talent evaluation, and crappy coaching. Maybe not next year, when Michigan's breaking in a new quarterback and the upperclass talent levels are still relatively even, but after that… back to the salt mines, Sparty. Or maybe Alabama, OSU, and USC are only good because of their helmets.

It’s certainly true that MSU is not recruiting at the clip that U of M is, but they never have.  The last four years were the result of “crippling attrition, lackadaisical talent evaluation, and crappy coaching”. Which one was last year? Next year doesn’t count either since U of M will have a new quarterback and all. It might be easier if we can set up a schedule in advance of which years count based on quality of inbound recruits, home schedule and which years MSU will be having their worst offensive season since Internet Recordkeeping began. Who knows, maybe someday MSU fans can get enough UM cred to pick when it’s losses don’t count, but doubtful on account of the salt mining thing.

I’ve always hated the little brother quote. It’s always encapsulates the idea that if an MSU fan really wants to see U of M lose it’s because of a “complete obsession with the rivalry”. But if a distinguished U of M fan deigns to acknowledge the rivalry it’s because the pecking order of the Big Ten has been disturbed and requires correction.

This is a rivalry game and Michigan fans were exactly right to be excited as hell to win it. The same way MSU fans will be excited as hell to win it next time they do. This isn’t about relevance, if it were that I’d be writing about how much MSU cares about how Wisconsin not Michigan has kept them out of the Rose Bowl the last two years. It isn’t about recruiting either, after all on paper, Michigan had the better recruits the last four years. This is about being the champion of the state of Michigan. You won this year. Good for you, enjoy it while it lasts. We’ll see you in East Lansing next fall.

After last Saturday’s loss to Iowa, the season seemed lost. MSU just blew a game it was supposed to win and the Big Ten title fell out of reach in all but the Ohio State sense of official. The Spartan Internets turned into a tail-eating imploding mess. The offense looked like a blubbering pile of sadness and I assumed it was because of the rain. After watching our friends in Ann Arbor put 45 up on Illinois though, it wasn’t only the damn rain. The offense cannot move the chains and shoulder almost the entire burden of MSU’s three losses this season.

In a season of maddening statistics here might be the most maddening one of all. MSU has the passer with the most yards(Maxwell) and the rusher with the most yards(Bell) in the Big Ten. You say MSU isn’t moving the ball? Apparently they are. Even more strangely, MSU and UM have the exact same redzone percentage at 87.5 on the same number of attempts (24).  MSU has even kicked fourteen field goals, seven more than UM. So how does UM average 12.7 more points per game?  Simple, MSU has scored 2 TD’s on offense from outside the redzone where Michigan has scored twelve.

In past years, MSU has saved it’s fancy dishes for whenever we get together with U of M.  Every year, there’s a formation or package that gets it’s grand unveiling even if it might have helped out in a game or two previously. 2012 will be no different. I’m not sure how yet, there are so many tricks that an offensive coordinator can use to hide a bad offensive line, such as but not limited to: Screens, Draws, No huddle, Slants, three step drops. How many of those have you seen? I saw some of those things in the Boise State game and then with the exception of the No-Huddle package they up and vanished like a fart in the wind.

18.7. MSU has averaged 18.7 ppg in their losses. Only Utah State and Stanford have lost multiple games while conceding fewer points. 18.7 would give MSU the 27th best scoring defense in the nation. For as much internet jabber about how the Defense isn’t holding up to snuff they’re giving up three points fewer per game than last year.

So where am I going with all of this?

The stats really bear out the story that the defense is the keystone of the team this year despite their message board whining about their lack of dominance. What’s surprising though is how close the offense has been to being keystone instead of Keystone Cops which is how I envision them in my head. The key to beating UM has nothing to do with making grand alterations to the defense. That gameplan is simple, keep everything between the tackles and just hold the score down. MSU has been able to do that the last three years and the only defense in that bunch that was better was the 2011 version. In fact Denard Wolverines have score 20, 17, 14 respectively. They’re only “due” to score 11 this year.

On offense, MSU has to finish drives this week. Notice I didn’t say in the redzone. MSU is fine once it gets in the redzone. To do that MSU will need to improve itself in the rushing game substantially. This is not a function of Le’Veon Bell, this is a function of the leading rusher in the Big Ten frequently being on a team where he’s the only trusted running back. For all of his foibles in the Punt Return game, Nick Hill looked just fine as a change of pace back against Iowa. MOAR of that please.,

This game is going to rely on Dan Roushar’s ability to take advantage of the flashes Mumphery and Burbridge have been showing. The game is going to rely on creative playcalling to help MSU finish drives. Maxwell and Bell have been moving the sticks this year in spite of the fact it feels like they haven’t been. They just need some help getting into a position to close. They don’t even need to score tons, a simple average of 17 points will be enough.

Figure out a way to get three touchdowns and MSU walks out of Ann Arbor with the Paul Bunyan trophy. It’s that simple.

I wrote like 600 words already on this, but I’m deleting most of them. All offseason long I thought 9-3 was a good estimate for 2012 MSU. I read a lot of hype about the lack of drop-off from Cousins to Maxwell and ratcheted those expectations up to the 10-2 or 11-1 type area. This is a 7-5 team and they might need to work hard to get to that number even. That’s disappointing and it’s pissed a lot of fans off. Maybe we’re greedy after two 11 win seasons, but after upping everyone’s seat prices by 50 bucks or more across the Spartan Stadium board, fans aren’t the only ones.

The players are far from the problem. They seem to be improving in spite of a dose of the injury bug this year not seen in the Dantonio era. Taiwan Jones has really emerged in recent weeks. James Kittredge has been a positive player at the Worthy spot this year. Kurtis Drummond and RJ WIlliamson are both great players at the safety position. Burbridge and Mumphery are coming along nicely and the drops seem to have dropped off some.  At least the “OMG you are open like 7-11” ones.

Offensive playcalling is undoubtedly impacted when you lose two Offensive Line starters. The interior run game disappeared when Travis Jackson went down against OSU. The ability to put off a pass rush was greatly diminished when Fonoti went down.

All of that said, my patience for the offensive playcalling is exhausted right now. There is no way with a back as gifted as Le’Veon Bell and the passing game that’s clearly coming along that MSU should manage only 6 points that weren’t turnover presents. Iowa’s defense is good, but not that good. The offensive playcalling must improve for MSU to contend for conference titles, it might need to improve for them to make a bowl game. Any bowl game.

The hope of a Big Ten title is gone. You can resign yourself to that right now if you haven’t already. I didn’t until the pass to Mumphery got picked off to lose the game. Now the goal is to make a bowl game, preferably win, and fix some of these problems for 2013.

THings I liked about this game later this week or in the TOC Podcast.

Travis Jackson went down in the first half of the Ohio State game and with him any hope of a run game between the tackles this year. Drive charting the last two games since is not something I have time for, but it’s obvious to me that the interior run game has descended back into 2011 levels. This isn’t a sign of a terrible Offensive Line, there just isn’t an offensive line in the Big Ten that could take the loss of two full-year returning starters in Jackson and Fonoti and not struggle afterwards.

The good news is that an offensive identity is emerging. The bad news is that Coach “Run the ball and stop the run” Dantonio is probably not going to like it. MSU looks to have a legitimate offense in their no-huddle, dink and dunk offense.

In all of the games where MSU gets behind, they resort to a no-huddle, 5 WR/4WR and Bell passing look. AND THEY PROCEED TO MOVE THE BALL. When asked why they moved away from this look in the Notre Dame game Dantonio replied:

"I felt like we needed to change the tempo on the third quarter, which we did," he said. "From my perspective, I felt like we should probably have changed back and went with a more traditional offense after that, at least one or two more times. We sort of stayed in that mode too long. … We kept trying to force the issue instead of doing it more the conventional way.”

The conventional way? The conventional way is to have a QB who can run like Denard Robinson, Braxton Miller, Nathan Scheelhasse, MarQuies Gray, Kain Colter and T-Magic. Pocket passers are unconventional in college football. The rest of the pocket passers all run spread offenses, so playing pro-style football is decidedly unconventional these days. Who runs a pro-style offense anymore in CFB? Alabama? Central Michigan? MSU fans should all give Mark Dantonio a hug and tell him it’s ok to throw 65 percent of the time if that’s what wins games.

At the end of the Boise State game, Andrew Maxwell had 0 TD’s and 3 picks, only one of which was a terrible throw and even that came with 7 seconds left in the half. At the close of yesterday, Maxwell had 6 TDs and 0 picks in the other five games of the season. If MSU can move the ball in a five wide hurry up look three or four times a game, Maxwell has earned the right to run that offense. More importantly he seems to have the mental stuffin’s to do the job.

There’s gold in mixing two or three heavy passing quick series into the first half before MSU is down significant points. If MSU can pick up 7-10 points off of three no-huddle series in the first half that would lower significantly the odds of having to come from behind.

The offensive identity has emerged. It’s just that it’s come out the anti-Dantonio. We’ll see how he handles it.