You’ll notice that whenever a prospect commits to MSU, I always note two things. One, where the prospect has competing offers and two, what their ranking is according to Rivals, Scout and 247. There’s usually also a bit WOOOO!! involved. I tend to shy away from star ranking as an evaluation tool for how GOOD a prospect is and more often will rely on offer sheet and available YouTube film. Why? Well, because the star system is flawed. Not just in the way that Le’Veon Bell and Jeremy Gainer were misranked as two and four star prospects respectively. Most importantly in that the “quality” of the average B1G prospect has increased by between nine and thirty percent from 2002-2012.
For the purposes of this article, I’m going to use the Rivals rating system and I’m going to examine Big Ten players. I give them my moneys, they give me the datas, it’s cool like that. In the Rivals ranking system, a prospect receives two rankings. The first is a star ranking, the prospect can receive anywhere between zero and five stars. This is the traditional ranking that some idiot armchair fan from every school cites in the following beer-inspired sentence after a loss “Well, we have a five-star quarterback coming in next year.” Rivals prospects do not get one star ratings, not even the bad ones from Texas, the Lone Star State.
The second rating system is unique to Rivals. Explanation:
The ranking system ranks prospects on a numerical scale from 6.1-4.9. 6.1 Franchise Player; considered one of the elite prospects in the country, generally among the nation's top 25 players overall; deemed to have excellent pro potential; high-major prospect 6.0-5.8 All-American Candidate; high-major prospect; considered one of the nation's top 300 prospects; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team 5.7-5.5 All-Region Selection; considered among the region's top prospects and among the top 750 or so prospects in the country; high-to-mid-major prospect; deemed to have pro potential and ability to make an impact on college team 5.4-5.0 Division I prospect; considered a mid-major prospect; deemed to have limited pro potential but definite Division I prospect; may be more of a role player 4.9 Sleeper; no Rivals.com expert knew much, if anything, about this player; a prospect that only a college coach really knew about
The ranking system ranks prospects on a numerical scale from 6.1-4.9.
Getting the data for this one is really going to be a pain in the toucas, so unless someone really wants a follow-up post, I’m not going to dig into that.
For Stars
The quality of the “average” Big Ten prospect increased from an average of 2.80 in 2002 to 3.04 in 2012. Since NO ONE who gets a scholarship offer and gets signed before the rankings are done gets a zero star ranking, I derived the 30 percent number above as (1.04-.8). Even without that, the increase from 2.8 to 3.04 is still a nine percent increase. Meaning on average according to the star rankings, the average Big Ten player is 9 to 30 percent better than they were in 2002.
Are kids really even nine percent better than they were in 2002?
In 2004, Rivals reported that there were 3375 recruits between two and five stars. In 2012, that number jumped to 3469 which is a 2.7 percent increase over 2004. So presuming the power conferences like the Big Ten snatched up the higher quality kids that still doesn’t explain a 9 percent increase. As for the stratification of the “quality class”, in 2004 there were 2437 two-star prospects which comprised 72.2 percent of the class size. In 2012, the 1603 comprised a meager 47.5 percent of the total class. No question about it, the two-star Rivals prospect is a dying breed.
So where did they all go?
In 2004, there were 660 3-Star recruits(19.6% of total) and 244 4-Star Recruits(7.2% of total) and 34 5-Star recruits(1% of total). In 2012 there were 1513 3-Star Recruits(43.6% of total) and 320 4-Star Recruits(9.2% of total) and 33 5-Star Recruits(.95% of total). So as you can see the number of three-star prospects enjoyed a 122 percent increase from 2004-2012. The number of four and five-star recruits enjoyed a 24 percent increase over the same period which would seem ridiculous if it weren’t put up next to the three-star numbers. Really all of that increase comes from the four-star prospects, five stars have been holding steady at around 1 percent through the years.
So when should I crow about a kid’s recruiting ranking?
From a human decency standpoint, never. Until they’re on the field and out producing their predecessors, they’re not anymore valuable than any other recruit. However, if you must, do not crow about a two-star kid, they should have been a three. Don’t crow about a three-star kid, they’re the new two stars. Four-star prospects are growing at a semi-manageable rate of 27.8 percent from 2004-2012, (that’s like the rate of inflation right?), but even a 27.8 percent increase over a period of time that only saw a 2.7 percent increase in the number of prospects evaluated is still pacing on an untenable track.
If you get a five-star prospect, crow. That’s cool, rare and the likelihood of them being good is high.
So why Offer Sheets?
Prospects pick up the bulk of their offers in the Summer Camp season which is in June and July. So if you receive a commitment during a prospect's junior year the Offer Sheet as a tool doesn't have much merit yet. If the commitment comes after camp season, typically the offer sheet is a better gauge of quality. Also to be considered is what scheme the competing offers come from, if a four-star LB has offers from Indiana and the MAC I'm less excited about that prospect than say a three-star LB prospect with offers from Iowa and Wisconsin.
This is part two of our Outback Bowl Film Review. You can read part one of our review here and Heck's fantastic film review over on The Only Colors.
1.) Senator Cousins threw seven picks in thirteen games and three from the start of the fourth quarter in the Outback Bowl. What happened?
Well, the obvious suggestion would be that he was pressing, although he threw the first pick down only 16-14 with 11:21 left in the game. The way MSU's season went most games were only half over at this point.
Cousins Pick 1
MSU lines up in the shotgun and Georgia lines up in their 3-4 and shows blitz from the defense left or a slightly delayed blitz from defense right. The blitz ends up coming from the area in yellow. This is probably as good a job as Georgia did masking the blitz all day.
The play snaps and the defense right starts dropping back into coverage while two blockers on the left come completely unblocked. Obviously, Cousins is all "Oh Balls!". The left side of MSU's offensive line was expecting the blitz to come from the defense right and so they're left with no one to block.
Bell can't block both defenders, I mean he probably could if he was all hulked out and pissed like he is in the first quarter. Seriously, he can't block both guys. Foreman isn't blocking anyone, but doesn't look around to see if the blitz is coming from the other side.
Bell picks his poison, but ultimately he was just trying to make Cousins feel better about the fact that he had less than two seconds to get rid of this ball. Cousins is about to get smeared by number 19.
He throws the ball to what looks like a B.J. Cunningham who is in single coverage and has gotten himself some separation.
But the safety makes a great play and jumps the route and runs the other way with the ball. Which sucks.
Cousins Pick 2
MSU lines up in a Two Tight End I formation. Georgia has got nine in the box. MANBALL is about to ensue. right? RIGHT?
Wrong. The play snaps in some "Oh sir, you've bested me with your trickeration" fashion, Linthicum and Sims take off on verticals downfield. Cunningham runs a wheel route past the sticks.
Both Tight Ends are deep into the secondary and it looks like here comes another catch on Linthicum's already amazing 115 yard day.
I means seriously, Linthicum is stupid open. Except Alec Ogletree does his best Woodson imitation and leaps up in the air to tip a ball that he really had no business getting to.
He tips it down and it's a Fat Guy Interception. I'd try to screencap it, but the glory of a Fat Guy Interception is not meant to be beheld by viewing instrument less ornate than that of the simple human eye.
Cousins Pick 3
MSU is in it's 5 WR package and Georgia lines up in a 3-4 Over. The blitz comes from defense right this time. The corner actually gets sent on a corner blitz, but because he's a few yards off the line of scrimmage it comes as an unblocked but slightly delayed blitz.
The play snaps and he begins his attack.
He's still coming while his friends are trying to kill Kirk. Note, if Keshawn Martin, WR at the top-right of the screen cuts his route short there's a good chance this isn't a pick. Number 9(also top-right) is in man coverage on Cunningham. He still would have been short of the sticks but would have had a great chance to make a play.
Bell is open out in the flat but Cousins heard all of you guys screaming at him in the first half and knows that he should not throw short of the sticks.
Nichol is open way downfield, but Cousins got pressured into a bad throw and throws to his most reliable target, Cunningham.
2.) Nichol touchdown.
MSU lines up in a 5 WR shotgun set. Georgia lines up in it's 3-4. Georgia is guarding the endzone fiercely as evidenced by the three deep safeties right on the goal line.
The play snaps and Georgia brings four, the remaining four that are up on the line pick a man and drop into coverage.
The red represents the actual routes run by the Wide Receivers. In a moment you'll see this was obviously a designed clearout for Nichol from the outset.
Here the yellow routes are what MSU ran and the red routes are what the respective routes by Georgia defense was. The concern that Keshawn Martin caused for the Georgia D is what allowed Nichol to get open. Martin ran right at the deep middle safety and dragged both the safety and his linebacker into double coverage. Cunningham who ran the quick out, had the job of taking his guy out of the play, which left Nichol in single coverage in the endzone. Nichol can outmuscle a safety because even his muscles have muscles.
3.) Safety Play
Keshawn Martin has the red line over him. He is about to be safetied for safety's sake.
The blitz is coming from the area in yellow. That is a lot of blitzing. Sugar jets!
The play snaps and Cunningham starts on his route. The red route was the route he ran, the yellow route would have probably prevented a safety. It would have caused Boykins to square himself in the wrong direction, which would have given Martin time to at least get out of the endzone.
Instead Martin catches the ball two yards behind the goal line. ROUSHAR ALIEN HYPOTHESIS COMES NOW: If Martin can slip the tackle on Boykins, this is a minimum of a 40 yard gain. Likely six points. Number 9, Ogletree in the middle of your screen has a good angle, but is an inside linebacker and is likely not going to beat Martin in a footrace. Your next best angle belongs to All-American Safety Shawn Williams. Alas, instead of a well-disguised home run ball, Georgia gets two points.
I only bring this picture up because I want to show how hard Martin got hit. He's like three inches short of breaking the plane and doesn't make it out.
In fact, he got hit so hard he got knocked clean backwards for another yard loss on top of that. So that sucked.
4.) Brian Linthicum catches a 50 yard pass to set up the tying Touchdown.
Two things happened on this play that made all the difference. Georgia sent six on the blitz and it didn't get home. Thing number two is that in the still above, Linthicum had not yet caught the ball and Travis Jackson was a few yards downfield. I'm not saying that's an illegal man downfield, I'm just saying maybe be a bit more careful about that in the future.
I really wanted to do a workup on how and why Linthicum had 7 grabs for 115 and what gave him that success in this game. Unfortunately, there really wasn't a typical play to chart on the matter. 115/7 is 16.3 yards per grab. He had two catches in the neighborhood of that a 17 yard pass from Cousins and an 18 yard pass from Martin, but his other catches were for -1,3,23,50 and 5 yards. So his day seemed to be largely feast or famine so it's difficult to use that as a framework to describe the whole day.
5.) I can't make this BieLOLema up.
I swore those were the Dr. Dre's Beats, but instead they're Bose. And as every audiophile jokes, "No highs, no lows, it's Bose". Crappy headphones and a pair of Officer Barbrady aviators. That's bi-winning!
Summation
Prior to the Outback Bowl all I heard from a couple of the Georgia bloggers that I follow is how afraid MSU should be of Georgia's D. It's absolutely true, their defense was excellent in getting Cousins to turn the ball over three times for the first and only time in 2011 and holding Bell to his lowest YPC of the season. For as much as I made reference in the MSU D vs UGA O post about how well MSU's D played, UGA's D did an equally impressive job.
The Offense as a result had kind of a feast or famine day and Dan Roushar got to wheel out his inner OC alien which always makes the denizens of Zerfgnax happy. In rewatching this game, we are going to miss Kirk Cousins next year. In spite of having a poor game, he had the poise and confidence to get in there and win MSU the game. People who think Maxwell will be an immediate upgrade will be lucky if they're right, as will we, the fans.
This is a great building block win for going into 2012. Georgia was a young and talented team who got the jump on MSU early and couldn't quite hang in there to close out the game. MSU beat a team when the two teams were on equal footing. It was a great way to close out the career for so many deserving seniors and set up our future seniors for their bowl game success.
Outback Bowl Film Study: The Only Colors has it. The always excellent Heck Dorland does an outstanding job breaking down a third quarter drive in MSU's comeback win against Georgia in the Outback bowl. Required reading if you miss MSU football.
Divination, Tea Leaves and Real Estate Speculation: The class of 2012 was officially signed, sealed and delivered to MSU this week. If you want an excellent and quick overview check out the Little Brother Blog's write up on 2012 MSU Defensive Recruits and 2012 MSU Offensive Recruits.If something a little more official is your bag, MSU Spartans, has all the quotes about athleticism, change of direction and toughness you could want to read. If you want the super deep dive on MSU recruits hit that link for all of the write-ups we did this week. It's lame to link your own stuff in a links post, but there are some people who only read on the weekends. Chris Vannini points out that making predictions for the class of 2012 is not possible. He also hates freedom, joy and puppies. However, he wisely points out that a retrospective recruiting ranking would be more accurate. Luckily, if you're interested in such a thing, it exists. Spartan Nation examines a retrospective ranking of the class of 2008.
Urban Warfare(Pt. 2)
This is not 'Nam, Urban. This is recruiting, there are rules.
Bret Bielema thinks that Urban Meyer is "OVER THE LINE!" So, he's going to have Alvarez talk to "the league office. I don't know maybe have them forfeit the match." The point I was trying to make in yesterday's post was if you want to say the B1G has a Gentleman's Agreement, fine.When people don't adhere to that agreement, they are not gentlemen. That's fine too. But to publicly complain that decorum has been broken but no actual rules were violated makes you look less gentlemanly. Also, the reason so many villains are southern gentlemen is because they do their dirty work behind closed doors.
I'm done talking recruiting until camp season or the next commit.
The BasketBOWL is Sunday and MSU really needs a win. Luckily Draymond appears to be ready to go. I wouldn't count on him at full strength. No previews are up on either side yet. Go Green. Beat the Wolverines.
As many of you are already aware, this could be the Spartans' best draft performance in recent memory. So I have decided to begin providing a weekly update on ABDFF of how various Spartans are doing in relation to the NFL draft. Folks, these are exciting times. The NFL draft process is young and there is already a lot of good news about the Spartans. Let's start with a list of Spartan seniors and early departures.
42 Todd Anderson FB 6-2 265 SR Napoleon, Mich. - Napoleon
85 Garrett Celek TE 6-5 252 SR Cincinnati, Ohio - LaSalle
8 Kirk Cousins QB 6-3 205 SR Holland, Mich. - Holland Christian
3 B.J. Cunningham WR 6-2 215 SR Westerville, Ohio - Westerville South
67 Joel Foreman OG 6-4 315 SR Highland, Mich. - Milford
88 Brian Linthicum TE 6-5 245 SR St. Louis, Mo. - Clemson
82 Keshawn Martin WR 5-11 189 SR Inkster, Mich. - John Glenn
75 Jared McGaha OL 6-6 298 SR Powell, Tenn. - Powell
7 Keith Nichol WR 6-2 220 SR Lowell, Mich. - Oklahoma
69 Blake Pacheco DL 6-1 264 SR Salinas, Calif. - Monterey (Calif.) Peninsula College
96 Kevin Pickelman NT 6-4 288 SR Marshall, Mich. - Marshall
73 Arthur Ray Jr. OG 6-3 299 SR Chicago, Ill. - Mount Carmel
39 Trenton Robinson S 5-10 195 SR Bay City, Mich. - Bay City Central
16 Chris D. Rucker WR 5-9 178 SR Detroit, Mich. - Detroit Country Day
20 Kyle Selden P 6-5 199 SR Waterford, Mich. - Our Lady of the Lakes
47 Adam Setterbo FB 6-3 245 SR Spring Lake, Mich. - Spring Lake Senior
81 Brad Sonntag WR 5-8 176 SR Saginaw, Mich. - Nouvel Catholic Central
57 Johnathan Strayhorn DT 6-0 272 SR Detroit, Mich. - Oak Park
4 Edwin Baker RB 5-9 210 JR Highland Park, Mich. - Oak Park
99 Jerel Worthy DT 6-3 310 JR Huber Heights, Ohio – Wayne
So far, most of the news is about the seniors. And you would expect that since we have all these "senior-related" events going on: the Senior Bowl, the East-West Shrine game, and NFLPA Collegiate Bowl.
Nevertheless, let me just just briefly start with Jerel Worthy. As everyone knows, Worthy has been considered a first-round pick most of the year. He's still considered a first-rounder by most mock drafts. But at one point, guys like ESPN's Todd McShay had him going in the top 15, and now most mock drafts seem to have him going in the bottom half of the first round. I think that once the NFL Scouting Combines get going, Worthy will get his chance to impress and move up into the top 15.
Then we have Kirk Cousins, who seems to be making a big splash at the Senior Bowl camp. About a week or two ago, Mel Kiper Jr. was suggesting that Cousins could go by about the 5th round of the NFL draft. Now we're hearing people (like Sporting News' Russ Lande) talk about Cousins going as high as the 2nd round. That's crazy! Oh no it isn't. I've said it before, Cousins has played at times like a first-rounder -- particularly during the B1G championship game -- and it was only a matter of time before others saw what Spartan fans saw this year. If Cousins does end up going in the second round, don't be surprised to see a significant boost in MSU's quarterback recruiting, as soon as next year.
Then there's BJ Cunningham. In case you missed his touchdown at the East-West Shrine game, here it is. Other than that, there's not much else...except if you think it's a big deal that ESPN's Todd McShay was raving about Cunningham! McShay thinks Cunningham was the best receiver at the practices and that he could end up going in the third round of the draft.
Finally, there's Brian Linthicum, who is playing in the Senior Bowl. According to Tony Pauline at SI.com, Linthicum has been impressive at the Senior Bowl practices: "Brian Linthicum (TE/Michigan State) has really impressed all day. He looked very athletic during opening drills and has made several impressive catches in full scrimmage."
Worthy, Cousins, and Cunningham have garnered most of the early attention, but here's a quick list of some related items:
- Keith Nichol made a nice grab (video) at the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl.
- Kirk Cousins, B.J. Cunningham, Keshawn Martin, Edwin Baker, and Trenton Robinson have all been invited to the NFL Scouting Combine.
- Trenton Robinson was interviewed by the Detroit Lions.
- Unfortunately, there's not much news on other guys I expect have a good chance to get drafted, guys like Kevin Pickelman (injured), Todd Anderson, and Joel Foreman. But hopefully, these guys will get invited to the NFL Combines, soon.
Leonidas writes on his own blog What Is Your Profession?. In addition to asking what your profession is he has begun writing to cover recruiting for ABDFF in his spare time. You can hit him up at noble.leonidas@gmail.com.
Between my office and a major freeway interchange, there is a Wal-Mart. I think it’s the “Super” kind, too. Normally I shop at Meijer, but every once in a blue moon I need to get from my office to the freeway and buy something they don’t sell at gas stations; Super Wal-Mart is there for me.
On one of these excursions, I was waiting in line for the U-Scan when I heard noises behind me that sounded like talking but not like words. I turned and found myself face to face with a person staring at me with wide, unblinking eyes.
He was holding a 30-pack of Busch, the kind that comes in the collector camouflage box with blaze orange letters. He had on light-wash blue jeans with epic holes in the knees. On his head was a plain black baseball cap bearing the word “JESUS” in white capital letters. Under his nose was something that might have been alive but was probably a moustache. On his torso was a University of Michigan T-shirt.
I stared at him.
He stared at me.
I turned around, paid for my merchandise, and left.
This was the legendary “Wal-Mart Wolverine,” encountered in his natural habitat. I was too close to the beast to pull out a camera and take a picture, but like James Audubon I returned with this detailed accounting of the animal for academic enlightenment.
I am a sports fan at the crest of the Web 2.0 wave. My personal passions and professional skills pitch me right into the wheelhouse of the sports blogging demographic. I am thirty years old, white, male, college-educated, and see all things with a critical eye and a burning desire to know. I have a balanced life with wife, children, and white-collar career—but make time for all of my various hobbies and interests, because I’m just a geek like that and all this crazy has to go somewhere. I will sleep when I am dead.
I am incredibly privileged.
I count amongst my privileges that I was able to attend Michigan State University, as did my mother, and her father before her—not to mention my wife, both her sisters, both her parents, my stepmother . . . we are privileged. We don The Only Colors as symbols of our pride in and loyalty to the school that helped us become the people we are, and to which we paid a hell of a lot of money for the privilege.
We love and cheer for our school and its sports teams. When I was in school, I knew many athletes (I was in Case Hall), and it was incredible to see the people I hung out with all week don the armor and the livery and take the field to battle our “enemies.” It’s what’s incredible about college athletics: it’s our students against your students, and may the best team win.
We take that rivalry from the stands to the streets, and take turns jawing with family, friends, coworkers and strangers over whose lyceum reigns supreme. Sometimes it’s all in good fun. Sometimes it gets heated. Sometimes it turns ugly.
Sometimes you’re sitting in your Wolvie boss’s living room with all of his friends watching Michigan State lose 49-3 on his six-foot projection TV and you’re the only MSU fan there and they’re all giving you the business and even though what you really want to say is “Look, dude, you went to U of M Flint” you can’t so you mutter something about basketball season and know that someday the shoe will be on the other foot.
Sometimes that Wal-Mart Wolverine sees your team colors and starts jawing at you and telling you you “suck” and you want to know where in the hell he gets off telling you you suck when he’s never even been to Ann Arbor and his only connection to the football team that beat your football team is the T-shirt he bought here at Wal-Mart two years ago.
This is where we take a step back and talk about class.
The Wal-Mart Wolverine does not have Michigan’s two-deeps memorized. The Wal-Mart Wolverine does not know which crucial recruits M is vying for. The Wal-Mart Wolverine may only be dimly aware that Rich Rodriguez is no longer the coach. The Wal-Mart Wolverine brands himself a Michigan fan because it’s a cheap and easy way to feel like a winner. He feels like a winner when Michigan wins on Saturday, and he feels like a winner during the week when he talks shit to some ponytailed fag wearing an Spartan polo and Tweeting on an iPhone.
Look, I didn’t graduate from State. I worked in the trades on a per-hour, sometimes-cash-only basis until I figured out who I wanted to be when I grew up. I spent a lot of time working side-by-side with guys who had precious little going for them besides a strong back, a permanent tab at their favorite bar, and a Michigan T-shirt.
So it is with the Juggalo Spartan. I cringed at Brian’s description of the State fans in Ann Arbor last year:
That was Saturday: financial mathematicians screaming at Juggalos, and the Juggalos winning. The State meathead directly behind me literally said "bitch! fuck you!" whenever MSU tackled Denard Robinson for less than five yards. On Friday, Tim came back to his apartment to find a trail of blood leading to a passed-out State meathead who'd broken in. The same guys who clumsily spray-painted a bedsheet in 2008 to declare their glorious victory over the worst Michigan team in 50 years reprised their genius. As I walked home every glassy-eyed Stiffler that passed me upped the amplitude of my anger/depression cocktail. Jesus, they were everywhere. They came to Ann Arbor cocky and stupid and left cocky and stupid. Enduring it was brutal. In their eyes, that was probably the point.
I brand myself with that the same Michigan State fandom that those a-holes do, and it kills me—kills me—to hear that people who call themselves Spartan fans would say and do those terrible things. But Brian hit something else on the head: those probable-Juggalos “almost certainly didn't even go to the game because they couldn't afford it.” They’re poor. They’re definitely ignorant, and probably stupid. They didn’t go to State, or likely any college. They didn’t earn their fandom with tuition and classes like he did his and I did mine.
So first, let’s call a spade a spade: the phenomenon of Wal-Mart Wolverines and Juggalo Spartans is a whole lot more about the struggle of class against class than between Michigan and Michigan State. They didn’t go to the big fancy school in the town where they grew up—but by cheering for the rival they get to lord it over those who did. They don’t represent their fan bases any more than the twisted Alabama fan who poisoned the oaks at Toomer’s Corner knows Violent J from Jay-Z.
Let’s let the common person who just wants a weekend escape have their escape without demanding to see their qualifications, and let’s hate the thugs and vandals on either side for their thuggery and vandalism, not their alignment. I’m not going to spray paint somebody’s car with “STATE” misspelled any more than Brian’s going to kill a 30-pack of Busch during the next UFR.
Second, let’s remember how awesome this rivalry is. My grandfather sat in the Spartan Stadium stands and hated Michigan—just as my mother did and as I do. We have the Internet now; we have computers that fit in our pockets and talk to the Internet everywhere, and we can interact with each other at any time of day or night all year ‘round. We can steep ourselves in the tradition and the vitriol and the misery and the triumph and all day every day for as much as we can stand. That’s a privilege; let’s treat it as such.
I stand with my Wolverine-loving iFriends as fans of Big Ten college football, and I want our annual battle to be played for the highest possible stakes every single year. I want our rivalry to be a marquee contest that draws national attention, and has national implications. I want to hate and taunt and mock and deride and seethe at each other with the respect, dignity, and yes—class—that befits ladies and gentlemen of privilege and higher education.
Also, I hope we kick their ass.
